Severe weather alerts issued for high seas, report conditions immediately.

IOR
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII EAST OF 20E.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 15TH OF DECEMBER 2024 AT 08:30 UTC.

FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW.

NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.

AREA 1:
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FORECAST VALID FROM 151000 TO 161000 UTC:

WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.

NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/4/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CHIDO)

2.A POSITION 2024/12/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 40.2 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/12/15 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 37.4 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/12/16 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 34.9 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/12/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 32.6 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. CAPE EAST: N to NE 35 to 40 in the north-west, but W to SW 35 to 40 in
the west, spreading over the central parts by mid-period,
but NW 35 to 40 in the south, drifting to the south-east
towards end of period.

2. DURBAN EAST: NE 35 to 40 in the west, but S to SW 35 in the south-west
towards mid-period.

3. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: N to NE 35 to 40 in the north-west at first. (Also
see information about Tropical Cyclone CHIDO
above.)

4. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 to 45 in the west, spreading to the
east towards mid-period.

SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
=====================
High 1030 hPa 36s17w, High 1022 hPa 34s45e

Low 950 hPa 49s21e, Low 967 hPa 48s76e

1. Cold Front: 31s13e 35s18e 40s23e into 49s21e 2. Cold Front: 28s57e 34s70e 40s75e into 48s76e

AREA FORECAST:
==============
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east, otherwise N to NE 20 to
30 reaching 35 to 40 in the north-west, but W to SW 30 to 40
in the west, spreading over the central parts by mid-period,
but NW 30 to 40 in the south, drifting to the south-east
towards end of period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the central
and western half, spreading to the east towards end of period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the west, spreading to
the south by end of period, with SW to S swell.

DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east, otherwise SE to E 15 to
25 but NE 30 to 40 in the west. It will become S to SW 25 to
35 in the south-west towards mid-period, and SE to S 10 to 20
in the west towards end of period.
VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places, except in the north.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, with SW swell.

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : SE to S 10 to 20 in the south, reaching 25 in the south-east
at first, otherwise N to NE 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 40 in the
north-west at first. (Also see information about Tropical
Cyclone CHIDO above.)
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in
places in the northern half.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the north-west at first, with NE swell.

MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : E to SE 15 to 25 in the north, otherwise N to NE 10 to 20,
reaching 25 to 30 in the extreme south-west towards mid-
period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers, except in the
extreme south-east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-west towards mid-period, with
S to SW swell.

MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 in the west, spreading to
the east towards mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the south,
but in the west, spreading to the east towards end of period.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m with SW swell, becoming 5.0 to 7.0m in the west by
mid-period, spreading to east towards end of period, while
reaching 8.0 to 10.0m in the south-west, with W to NW swell.

AREA 2:
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MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)

24/12/15 AT 0500UTC

AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).

PART 1: WARNING
– STORM FORCE 10 OVER KER.
– GALE FORCE 8 OVER AMS.
– GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED OVER CRO.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/12/15 AT 0000UTC
– DEEPENING LOW 972 HPA NEAR 46S/69E, MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT
DEEPENS. POSITION 952 HPA TOWARDS 52S/88E NEAR 16/12 AT 06 UTC.
– HIGH 1020 HPA NEAR 32S/42E, MOVING EASTWARD.

PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/12/15 AT 0600UTC TO 24/12/16 AT 0600UTC

WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH CF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THEN RARE SHOWERS.
WIND: NW 4 TO 6 AHEAD OF CF BACKING SW 5 TO 7 BEHIND THEN BECOMING
ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 AT THE END OVER THE WHOLE AREA.
SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. LONG SW SWELL 3 TO 4 M.
VIS : POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION, BECOMING GOOD.

AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL SHOWERS WITH CF THEN RARE SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WIND: NW 5 TO 7 AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOCALLY 8, BACKING SW 5 TO 7 BEHIND.
SEA : AGITATED TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. LONG SW SWELL 3 TO 4 M.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION, BECOMING GOOD AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SQUALLS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A NEW FRONT.
WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 7 INCREASING NW 6 TO 8 BEHIND A NEW WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONE AT END OF TERM.
GUSTS.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. LONG WESTERLY SWELL
3 TO 4 M.
VIS : GOOD THEN VERY BAD UNDER PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE TERM.

KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH CF.
WIND: LOW 8 TO 10, BECOMING W 6 TO 8 BEHIND THE LOW. VIOLENT GUSTS.
SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH, LOCALLY VERY ROUGH. WNW SWELL 3 TO 4 M, CROSSED
WITH STRONG WIND SEAS.
VIS : VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATION.

ENDS THIS IS CAPE TOWN RADIO

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