OMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4
2.A POSITION 2024/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 62.8 E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY-TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 260
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEPT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 150 NW: 110
36H: 2024/12/11 00 UTC: 10.8 S / 58.8 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48H: 2024/12/11 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 57.4 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2024/12/12 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 55.6 E, WIND MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
72H: 2024/12/12 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 53.8 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MARION FORTIES EAST: SW 35 in the east and north-east at first, but W
to NW 35 to 5.5m in the south, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE 15 to 25 in the west, otherwise SE to E 10 to 20 reaching
25 to 30 in the north but SW to S 10 to 20 in the south-east,
but in the south-west towards m the north.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at times, with SE to S swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, but E to NE 15 to 25 in the south-west.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places, except in
the south.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at first, mainly S to SW swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : SW 25 to 35 in the east and north-east at first, otherwise W
to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 40 in the west, spreading to the
east by mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the west,
spreading to the east by mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the east and north-east
at first, but in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading
over the central and southern parts by end of period, with W
to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)24/12/09 AT 1600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).
PART 1: WARNING
Gale running over CRO.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/12/09 AT 1200UTC
– Low 991 near 45S/48E, rapidly moving eastward. Cold front 36S/45E, 37S/50E, 40S/53E, 42S/54E, 49S/47E.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/12/09 at 1800UTC to 24/12/10 at 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
Frontal rain or showers.
WIND: Westerly 4/6 over northern, 6 to 7 over southern.
SEA : rough to very rough, locally high over far southern. SW swell 3 to
5 m.
VISI: poor to very poor in precipitations.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
Frontal rain and showers
