IOR
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII EAST OF 20 EAST.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 09TH OF DECEMBER 2024 AT 16:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
======================
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
=======
FORECAST VALID FROM 092200 TO 102200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4
2.A POSITION 2024/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 62.8 E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY-TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 260
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/12/10 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 61.6 E, WIND MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 110
24H: 2024/12/10 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 60.3 E, WIND MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 150 NW: 110
36H: 2024/12/11 00 UTC: 10.8 S / 58.8 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48H: 2024/12/11 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 57.4 E, WIND MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
60H: 2024/12/12 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 55.6 E, WIND MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
72H: 2024/12/12 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 53.8 E, WIND MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
====================
1. MARION FORTIES EAST: SW 35 in the east and north-east at first, but W
to NW 35 to 40 in the west, spreading to the east
by mid-period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
=====================
High 1022 hPa 27s04w, High 1019 hPa 31s43e
Low 984 hPa 45s13w, Low 951 hPa 53s09e, Low 990 hPa 51s46e
1. Cold Front: 31s28w 33s20w 40s14w into 45s13w 2. Cold Front: 34s08w 40s12e 45s21e into 53s09e 3. Cold Front: 35s43e 40s55e into 51s46e
AREA FORECAST:
==============
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20 in the north-west and SW 15 to 25 in the
south-east, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the
south-west, spreading to the south-east towards end of period.
VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE 15 to 25 in the west, otherwise SE to E 10 to 20 reaching
25 to 30 in the north but SW to S 10 to 20 in the south-east,
but in the south-west towards mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west at times,
but in the south-east towards mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east and south-east at first, mainly SW
swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20
reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east at times, but E to NE 10
to 20 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in places in
the north.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at times, with SE to S swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, but E to NE 15 to 25 in the south-west.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places, except in
the south.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-east at first, mainly S to SW swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : SW 25 to 35 in the east and north-east at first, otherwise W
to NW 15 to 25 reaching 30 to 40 in the west, spreading to the
east by mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the west,
spreading to the east by mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the east and north-east
at first, but in the south-west towards mid-period, spreading
over the central and southern parts by end of period, with W
to SW swell.
AREA 2:
=======
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)24/12/09 AT 1600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here).
PART 1: WARNING
Gale running over CRO.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/12/09 AT 1200UTC
– Low 991 near 45S/48E, rapidly moving eastward. Cold front 36S/45E, 37S/50E, 40S/53E, 42S/54E, 49S/47E.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/12/09 at 1800UTC to 24/12/10 at 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
Frontal rain or showers.
WIND: Westerly 4/6 over northern, 6 to 7 over southern.
SEA : rough to very rough, locally high over far southern. SW swell 3 to
5 m.
VISI: poor to very poor in precipitations.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
Frontal rain and showers later.
WIND: W
