IOR
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII EAST OF 20E.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 05TH OF OCTOBER 2024 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
FORECAST VALID FROM 051000 TO 061000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
1. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to SW 35 to 40 over the southern half during
the first half of the period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
High 1025 hPa 42s20w, High 1024 hPa 32s11w, High 1025 hPa 40s13e High 1031 hPa 31s36e
Low 1015 hPa 28s01e
AREA FORECAST:
CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : NE 20 to 30 in the north-west, otherwise W to SW 15 to 25
reaching 30 in the south-east but SE to E 15 to 25 in the
west.
VIS : Good but moderate in rain and showers in the south-east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-east, mainly SW
swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE 15 to 25 in the north, otherwise S to SW 10 to 20 but NE 15
to 25 in the south-west.
VIS : Good but moderate in light showers in the north-east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east, mainly SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : SE to S 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the south-east during the
first half of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, reaching 4.0m in the south-east during the first
half of the period, with S to SE swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the north-west.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m over the northern half, but in the south towards
end of period, with S swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 40 over the southern half
during the first half of the period.
VIS : Moderate in rain and snow-showers at times.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, but 6.0 to 8.0m over the southern half, reaching
9.0m in the south, drifting to the east by mid-period, with SW
swell.
AREA 2:
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
24/10/05 AT 0600UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
– GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN WAM, AMS, CRO AND KER.
– STRONG GALE FORCE 9 EXPECTED OVER CRO AND KER THEN ON FAR SOUTHERN AMS
AT END.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/10/05 AT 0000UTC
– LOW 982 HPA NEAR 43S/68E FORECAST 976 HPA NEAR 44S/75E 5TH OCTOBER
2024 AT 12UTC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN KER AND SOUTHERN AMS
MOVING EASTWARD WITH THE LOW.
– LOW 981 HPA NEAR 55S/48E QUICKLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
DEEPENING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN CRO AND SOUTHERN WAM AT
START AND OVER KER AND SOUTHERN AMS LATER.
– COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AMS LEAVING THE AREA SOON.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/10/05 AT 0600UTC TO 24/10/06 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN.
WIND : W 6/7 OVER SOUTHERN INCREASING 7/8 SOON WITH SEV
