IOR
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. EAST OF 20E.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 29TH OF SEPTEMBER 2024 AT 17:00 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
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COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
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FORECAST VALID FROM 292200 TO 302200 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
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1. CAPE EAST: W to SW 35 to 45 over the western parts, spreading over the
central parts by mid-period.
2. DURBAN EAST: S to SW 35 in the west.
3. MARION FORTIES EAST: NE 35 to 40 in the south-east at first.
SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z
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High 1031 hPa 35s04w, High 1020 hPa 39s57e, High 1021 hPa 50s58e
Low 963 hPa 49s24e
1. Cold Front: 31s25e 35s35e 40s40e 45s42e into 49s24e
AREA FORECAST:
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CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : N to NW 20 to 30 in the east, otherwise W to SW 20 to 30
reaching 35 to 45 over the western parts, spreading over the
central parts by mid-period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, but 6.0 to 8.0m over the western half, reaching
9.0m in the south-west, spreading over the central parts
towards end of period, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the east at first, otherwise N to NE 15
to 25 reaching 30 in the north but S to SW 25 to 35 in the
west.
VIS : Good but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the
west, spreading over the central parts by mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the south-
west towards mid-period, with mainly S to SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the extreme east, otherwise N to NE 15 to
25 reaching 30 in the west but SE to E 10 to 20 in the extreme
north. It will become S to SW 10 to 20 in the extreme south-
west towards mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the north
and south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-west towards mid-period, with
S to SW swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : SE to E 15 to 25 over the northern half, otherwise N to NE 15
to 25 reaching 30 in the south-west.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south-west, with S to SW swell.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : NE 30 to 40 in the south-east at first, otherwise N to NW 15
to 25 reaching 30 in the south and west during the first half
of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in rain and snow-showers at times.
SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.5 to 6.5m in the extreme west,
spreading over the central parts by mid-period, with W to NW
swell.
AREA 2:
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MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
24/09/29 AT 1700UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
– GALE FORCE 8 RUNNING THEN STRONG GALE FORCE 9 EXPECTED OVER KER.
– GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED OVER AMS.
– GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED OVER CRO LOCALLY STRONG GALE FORCE 9.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/09/29 AT 1200UTC
– LOW 1000 HPA NEAR 42S/76E WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (CF) OVER
SOUTHERN AMS AND NORTH-EASTERN KER, MOVING EAST-NORTH-EASTWARD.
– HIGH 2021 HPA NEAR 50S/56E, MOVING NORTH-EASTWARD AND BUILDING,
EXPECTED 1031 HPA NEAR 44S/69E THE 30/09 AT 06UTC.
– LOW 984 HPA NEAR 49S/38E, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (CG) REACHING
SOON CRO, THEN FAR SOUTH-WESTERN WAM LATER, ALL MOVING EASTWARD.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/09/29 AT 1800UTC TO 24/09/30 AT 1800UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTH, THEN FRONTAL RAIN, SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
(CG) OVER FAR SOUTH-WESTERN AREA LATER
