WTNT21 KNHC 280833
TCMAT1 0833
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT……. 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.9W
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z…DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 45.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
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FORECASTER BEVEN
UUID 65741394-7D74-11EF-B023-0AFB0B260000 TX 1
