IOR
WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII, EAST OF 20E.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 18TH OF SEPTEMBER 2024 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
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COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
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FORECAST VALID FROM 181000 TO 191000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
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1. CAPE EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the north-west spreading to the
central-north by the end of the period.
2. DURBAN EAST: SW to S 35 in the south-west towards the end of the
period.
3. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 over the southern half.
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
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High 1038 hPa 40s09w
Low 1014 hPa 36s17e
Low 1010 hPa 34s35e
Low 962 hPa 55s36e
1. Cold Front: 32s15e 36s18e into 36s17e cont 39s25e 40s35e 43s40e 45s45e
48s50e 51s55e 57s49e 56s45e into 55s36e
AREA FORECAST:
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CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : NW to N 15 to 25 in the east reaching 30 until mid-period,
otherwise SE to S 15 to 25 spreading to the south-east in the
second half of the period, but cyclonic 20 to 30 in the north-
west reaching 35 to 45 spreading to the central-north by the
end of the period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except in the north-east, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in
the west and south towards mid-period, subsiding in the south-
west towards the end of the period, with SW swell.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : NE to N 15 to 25, but SW to S 10 to 20 in the south-west
reaching 25 to 35 towards the end of the period.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the extreme south-west by the end of the
period, with SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (10S/25S, EAST COAST/WEST COAST):
WIND : NW to W 05 to 15 in the east until mid-period, otherwise NE to
N 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the extreme south-west until mid-
period. It will be SE to E 10 to 20 in the extreme north.
VIS : Good.
MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : N to NE 10 to 20 in the south reaching 25 in the south-west
towards mid-period, otherwise SE to E 15 to 25.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the north from mid-
period.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 over the southern half, but SW
to S 15 to 25 in the north-west spreading to the north-east by
mid-period.
VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in north-east
until mid-period and in the south-west from mid-period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the north-east, otherwise 5.0 to 6.0m reaching
7.0 to 8.5m in the south-west spreading to the south-east by
mid-period while subsiding in the south-west by the end of the
period, with SW to W swell.
AREA 2:
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MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
24/09/18 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE).
PART 1: WARNING
– GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED OVER KER.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/09/18 AT 0000UTC
– FIRST COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN WAM/ WESTERN KER AT FIRST MOVING EASTWARD.
– SECOND FRONTAL AREA OVER FAR SOUTH-WESTERN CRO AT FIRST.
– HIGH 1038 HPA NEAR 38S/88E WITH RIDGE OVER EASTERN AMS.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/09/18 AT 0600UTC TO 24/09/19 AT 0600UTC
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E)
FRONTAL RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER EASTERN, THEN OVER FAR SOUTH-WESTERN AT END.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5, INCREASING GRADUALLY NW 5 OR 6 WITH SEVERE
GUSTS OVER SOUTH-WESTERN.
SEA : MODERATE, LOCALLY ROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHERN. ARRIVAL BY SOUTH-WESTERN
OF A LONG SW SWELL, INCREASING GRADUALLY, 2,50 M AT END OVER FAR
SOUTH-WESTERN.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E)
RAINS OR SHOWERS OVER WESTERN.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4, INCREASING NW 5 OR 6 OVER SOUTHERN.
SEA : SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
VIS : POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E)
RAINS OR SHOWERS.
WIND: NW OR W 6 OR 7 WITH SEVERE GUSTS, DECREASING VARIABLE 3 OR 4 OVER
NORTH-WESTERN AT END.
SEA : ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH, BECOMING LOCALLY HIGH IN FAR SOUTH-WESTERN AT
END. ARRIVAL OF A LONG W SWELL INCREASING GRADUALLY, 4 TO 6 M OVER
WESTERN AT END. NW SWELL, 2 TO 4 M OVER SOUTH-EASTERN AT END.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E)
FRONTAL RAINS OR SHOWERS.
WIND: NW 6 OR 7 OVER EASTERN, W 4 TO 6 OVER WESTERN, THEN INCREASING
LATER NW 6 OR 7 BY WESTERN, LOCALLY 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTH-
WESTERN.
SEA : ROUGH OR VERY ROUGH. NW SWELL 3 TO 5 M DECREASING BY WESTERN BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF A NEW NW SWELL AT END.
VIS : POOR OR VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
ENDS DE CAPE TOWN RADIO/ZSC+
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