WTPZ22 KNHC 220231
TCMEP2 0231
HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT……. 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…….100NE 100SE 110SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.5W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 124.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 100SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT… 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 127.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 128.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 135.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT… 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 123.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
¤¤
FORECASTER KELLY
UUID B71A5464-602E-11EF-8A2E-0AFB0B260000 TX 1
