WTNT25 KNHC 150240
TCMAT5 0240
HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT……. 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT…….100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 68.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 68.7W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 55NE 55SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 55NE 55SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT… 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT…170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 68.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5…AT 15/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
¤¤
FORECASTER REINHART
UUID D17A725A-5AAF-11EF-988E-0AFB0B270000 TX 1
