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WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII, EAST OF 20E.
ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 15th OF MAY 2024 AT 08:30 UTC.
FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW.
NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.
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COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.
AREA 1:
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FORECAST VALID FROM 151000 TO 161000 UTC:
WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M.
NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.
INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.
GALE FORCE WARNINGS:
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1. CAPE EAST: N to NW 35 over the south-central parts spreading towards
the south-east by mid-period.
2. MADAGASCAR EAST: E to SE 35 in the extreme north at first.
3. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the west spreading towards
the north-east by mid-period.
SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z
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High 1030 hPa 33s48e.
Low 976 hPa 44s06w Low 976 hPa 54s24e.
1. Cold Front: 29s22w 35s10w 40s03w into 44s06w.
2. Cold Front: 39s31e 45s33e 50s32e into 54s24e.
AREA FORECAST:
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CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):
WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 in the north-east, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30
reaching 35 over the south-central parts spreading towards the
south-east by mid-period, but W to SW 15 to 25 in the west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain over the central parts
spreading towards south-east by the end of the period.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in places, reaching 5.0 to 5.5m in the extreme
south, SW swell but SE swell over the south-central parts
spreading towards the south-east by the end of the period.
DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):
WIND : E to SE 15 to 25, but NE 15 to 25 in the south-west.
VIS : Good, but moderate in showers in the north-east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east in the first half of the period, S
to SW swell.
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the south-east and extreme
north-east.
VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east and extreme north-east, SE
swell.
MADAGASCAR EAST:
WIND : E to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the north, but 35 in the
extreme north at first.
VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers, but poor in the north-
east.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, S to SW swell, but SE in the extreme north.
MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):
WIND : W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 35 to 40 in the west spreading
towards the north-east by mid-period.
VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain in places.
SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, spreading towards the east towards mid-period
while reaching 5.5 to 6.5m over the west central parts
spreading eastwards by the end of the period, SE swell but NE
swell.
AREA 2:
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MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)
DATE: 24/05/15 AT 0500UTC
AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE.).
PART 1: WARNING:
STORM EXPECTED OVER KER, GALE EXPECTED OVER WAM AND CRO.
PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/15 AT 0000 UTC:
– QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW 1006 NEAR 39S/66E, MOVING QUICKLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD, 982 NEAR 42S/82E ON THE 16/05/24 AT 00 UTC. WAVE FRONT CF 36S/72E, 40S/74E, 43S/79E.
– COLD FRONT CG 40S/46E, 45S/459E, 50S/50E, 55S/51E.
– HIGH PRESSURE OVER WAM.
PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 15/05/24 AT 0600 UTC TO 16/05/24 AT 0600UTC:
WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E):
SHOWERS.
WIND: ANTICLOCKWISE 3/5 INCREASING NW 7/8 IN SOUTH-WEST AT END.
SEA: ROUGH BECOMING MODERATE IN NORTH-WEST BUT VERY ROUGH IN SOUTH-WEST, AT END. SW SWELL 2 TO 4 M ABATING.
VISI: POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E):
RAIN AND SQUALLS OVER EASTERN AT FIRST (CF), SHOWERS.
WIND: NORTHERLY 7 IN FAR EAST AT FIRST, BACKING SW 5/6 LOCALLY 7 IN SOUTH-EAST.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. LONG SW SWELL, 2 TO 4 M. CROSS SEA IN SOUTH.
VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E):
SCATTERED RAIN AT FIRST, RAIN OVER WESTERN AT END (CG).
WIND: WESTERLY 5/7, INCREASING NW 7/8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER WESTERN AT END.
SEA: ROUGH BECOMING VERY ROUGH IN NORTH-WEST AT END. W SWELL 2 TO 3M.
VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E):
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS IN NORTH-EAST (CF).
WIND: WESTERLY 4/6 IN SOUTH, SOUTHERLY 4/6 IN NORTH, BECOMING CLOCKWISE 9/10 IN FAR NORTH-EAST TONIGHT.
SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH, BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH IN FAR NORTH-EAST AT END. LONG W TO SW SWELL, 2 TO 3 M.
VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.
ENDS DE CAPE TOWN RADIO/ZSC+
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